probability-modeling

Monte Carlo simulation and neural regression for probabilistic cellular automata. An independent undergraduate research project exploring stochastic dynamics and steady-state behavior. 基于蒙特卡洛方法与神经网络回归的概率元胞自动机研究。 面向本科生的独立研究项目，探讨随机系统的稳态演化与统计规律。

Bayesian Statistics and Probability Modeling

XGB + Elo prior win probability model and Kelly-sized trading strategy for WNBA money-line markets on Kalshi

Using inferential statistics and binomial distributions to predict musical modality outcomes and assess risk in automated Spotify playlist curation.

The Big Bang of Data Science- Prediction from the Start to The End- [Book Three]

A Python-based mathematical model and visualization tool for forecasting system failure probabilities.

End-to-end credit risk modeling and loan default prediction using LendingClub data

WeatherEdge AI is a FastAPI backend for discovering weather prediction markets, parsing market questions, fetching forecasts, estimating event probabilities, evaluating expected value, and validating strategies through paper trading.

Prediction-market execution research lab testing whether apparent short-horizon Polymarket BTC pricing edges survive spread, fill probability, latency, risk limits, and settlement frictions.

Files used in code to generate findings, code, and associated visuals and research report

Python reconstruction of a biotech catalyst event strategy using PDUFA abnormal returns, break-even approval probabilities and checklist-based probability gaps.