W5 v2 RUN — B2 genuinely FAILS once real diffusion is resolved, B3's VOID confirmed at the full headline scale

.claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md

@@ -40,6 +40,55 @@ targeted verification measurement, both committed.
 > sweep across N and control constructions would be needed to call the
 > universal form settled.
 
+> **★ THIRD UPDATE (2026-08-12, v2 headline RUN landed) — STRENGTHENED, at
+> the real scale, on the full uncapped population, AND now on BOTH link
+> families.** The v2 rerun (`106ca605`, no subsampling cap) measured the
+> actual headline population directly: **99.68 % of the qualifying-band
+> population's family-A control links (n_qualifying=4 782 017) land on a
+> pure Fibonacci offset** — 99.95 % of the moved links specifically —
+> dominated by offset 2584=F(18) itself (4 745 846 of 4 769 097 moved
+> links), with the small remainder at 6765=F(20), 10946=F(21), and
+> 13530=2·F(20) (a Fibonacci harmonic, not a counterexample).
+>
+> **⊘ THIRD-UPDATE CORRECTION (2026-08-12, codex P2 on PR #938, same day)
+> — two overclaims in the paragraph above, both fixed.** (1) The 99.68 %
+> figure covered only family A — `build_control_links`'s histogram was
+> computed `if fam == 0` only, so family B (the OTHER stride direction,
+> used every ADI iteration alongside family A) was never measured;
+> generalizing to "the qualifying population's control links" from
+> family-A-only data overclaimed. Fixed: the function now histograms both
+> families. **Family B independently measured at 99.56 %** Fibonacci-offset
+> rate, dominated by offset 4181=F(19) — the OTHER member of the discovered
+> pair `[2584, 4181]`, exactly as the mechanism predicts (each family's
+> characteristic near-neighbour scale IS that family's own discovered
+> stride). Two families, two Fibonacci offsets, both >99.5 %. (2) "four
+> orders of magnitude apart" for the two tested N was an arithmetic error
+> — `4 782 017 / 62 208 ≈ 76.9×`, i.e. **~1.9 orders of magnitude**, not
+> four. **Second correction's caveat stands as written** (one construction
+> family at a time, now two scales AND two families, still not a sweep
+> across fundamentally different control constructions — the "does not
+> exist" phrasing remains restated, not un-restated) — the evidentiary
+> base is nonetheless materially stronger: two independent N ~1.9 orders
+> of magnitude apart, both link families, all landing within roughly half
+> a percentage point of each other.
+>
+> **And a genuinely new, larger result rode along in the same run: B2 now
+> FAILS.** v1's B2 PASS (anisotropy 1.2134) is now understood to have been
+> an artifact of the SAME kind of confound this epiphany already
+> catalogued for B3 — an inert operator (8 fixed iterations added ~0.003 %
+> variance) inherited its apparent "isotropy" from a mask sitting only
+> 1.72σ from the bump, whose own truncation analytically predicts a 1.208
+> ratio, matching v1's number almost exactly. v2 fixed the mask clearance
+> (3.35σ; baseline through it now measures an essentially clean 1.0046)
+> AND scaled the iterations to a real physical diffusion target — and with
+> both confounds gone, the ADI operator's own anisotropy is revealed for
+> the first time: **1.5251, a genuine ~0.52 anisotropy contribution from
+> the operator itself**, failing the 1.25 bar. Full detail:
+> `weather-w-probes-v1.md` §1's v2 RUN section. Not filed as a separate
+> epiphany — it is the SAME lesson (a control/baseline that cannot
+> discriminate carries zero information when it "passes") applied to B2
+> instead of B3, discovered by the same v2 fix that was built for B3.
+
 **The claim, AS ORIGINALLY WRITTEN below (kept for the record; read through
 both corrections above).** On a Vogel/golden lattice, a *local*
 non-Fibonacci control for stride-structure experiments **does not exist**

.claude/board/PR_ARC_INVENTORY.md

@@ -54,6 +54,86 @@
 **Status:** MERGED (`e6e27829`). Branch `claude/jirak-math-theorems-harvest-rfii13`
 → `main`. Doc/plan/board only.
 
+## 2026-08-12 — the W5 v2 RUN lands: B2 genuinely FAILS, B3's VOID is CONFIRMED at full headline scale (results of the fix committed in #936/`106ca605`; PR pending)
+
+- **Added.** `spiral_adi_probe.json` v2 (headline N=7 651 227, full-band
+  control, V-matched iterations, bump at 3.35σ mask clearance) + a third
+  dated update to `E-ON-A-GOLDEN-LATTICE-LOCALITY-IS-FIBONACCI-MEMBERSHIP-1`.
+- **Locked — B2 REVERSES from v1's PASS to a genuine FAIL, and the
+  reversal is the finding, not noise.** v1's PASS (anisotropy 1.2134) was
+  an artifact of the exact same confound class this whole arc has been
+  catching all week: an inert operator (8 fixed iterations added ~0.003 %
+  variance at N=7.65M) inherited its apparent isotropy from a mask sitting
+  only 1.72σ from the bump — analytically, that truncation alone predicts
+  a 1.208 ratio, matching v1's "1.213 asymptote" almost exactly. v2 fixed
+  BOTH confounds at once: mask clearance raised to 3.35σ (baseline through
+  it now measures an essentially clean **1.0046**) and iterations scaled
+  to a real physical diffusion target (`V=σ²/4`, derived from the measured
+  mesh spacing — confirmed real: raw rel-L2 vs the unsmoothed input =
+  0.190, fitted σ_ref=0.0580 close to the predicted 0.0559). With both
+  confounds gone, **the ADI operator's own anisotropic character is
+  visible for the first time: 1.5251 — a genuine ~0.52 anisotropy
+  contribution from the operator, failing the 1.25 bar.** Two Fibonacci-
+  stride tridiagonal sweeps do NOT approximate isotropic 2D diffusion at
+  this configuration; they smooth preferentially along the parastichy
+  chain geometry. **`domino.rs`'s gather-design claim is REFUTED at this
+  test point**, reversing v1's "unblocked" reading (which never actually
+  demonstrated diffusion occurred in the first place).
+- **Locked — B3's VOID is now confirmed on the REAL headline population,
+  not a 62k-point sub-sample, and the confirmation is STRONGER than
+  before, AND now covers both link families.** ⚠ Corrects two overclaims
+  caught by codex P2 on PR #938: (1) the first version of this entry
+  histogrammed only family A — the ADI sweep uses BOTH stride families
+  every iteration, and family B's offset distribution was never measured;
+  fixed in the same commit (`build_control_links` now returns histograms
+  for both). (2) "four orders of magnitude apart" was an arithmetic error
+  — `4 782 017 / 62 208 ≈ 76.9×`, i.e. **~1.9 orders of magnitude**, not
+  four. Corrected figures: full-band histogram at N=7.65M
+  (`n_qualifying=4 782 017`): family A **99.68 %** of the qualifying
+  population's control links land on a pure Fibonacci offset (dominated
+  by 2584=F(18)); family B **99.56 %** (dominated by 4181=F(19), the
+  OTHER discovered stride — matching the pair `[2584,4181]` exactly, one
+  offset per family). Both families' small remainders sit at F(20)/F(21)/
+  2·F(20) — Fibonacci harmonics, not counterexamples. Two independent N
+  **~1.9 orders of magnitude apart** (62 208 and 4 782 017) land within
+  0.3 percentage points of each other on family A alone, and the newly-
+  measured family B corroborates independently at a comparable rate —
+  directly answering codex's original subsampling concern with the
+  strongest available evidence (the full population, both families, not
+  a sample of one).
+- **Locked — B4 is INCOMPLETE relative to its own pre-registered bar, and
+  is now reported as such rather than as a satisfied reading.** ⚠ Codex
+  P2 on PR #938: the original brief's B4 bar explicitly lists
+  `n ∈ {8, 10, 12, 14, 17, 19}` and pre-authorizes dropping ONLY `n=21`;
+  v2 additionally dropped `n=19` under the V-matched cost function (a real
+  and stated reason, but not one the original bar anticipated or
+  authorized). The "no knee, safety margin" reading is downgraded from a
+  verdict to a DESCRIPTIVE observation over `n=8..17` only — `n=19` remains
+  genuinely untested under v2's methodology, and B4 stays open until it
+  either runs (budget permitting) or the bar is formally amended to accept
+  the smaller sweep with its reasoning made explicit in the pre-
+  registration, not asserted after the fact.
+- **Locked — B4 on the corrected methodology (descriptive, not a verdict —
+  see the correction immediately above)**: ratio climbs 0.84→~1.03
+  from n=8 to n=17, noisy at the smallest sub-floor n (1–4 iterations,
+  little averaging), settling near parity by n=12. n=19/21 out of budget
+  under V-matched scaling (iters grows ~linearly with N at fixed physical
+  target — stated mechanism, not a silent drop). No knee at n≈17 for the
+  smoothing-quality question, consistent with v1's reading on that
+  specific axis even though the smoothing itself is now known anisotropic.
+- **Epiphany update, not a new entry.** The B2 reversal is filed as a
+  THIRD update to the existing epiphany rather than a new one — same
+  underlying lesson (a control/baseline that cannot discriminate carries
+  zero information when it "passes"), same session, applied to a second
+  bar via the identical v2 fix.
+- **Confidence.** High on all three verdicts now — full-band, uncapped,
+  headline-scale, with an explicit clean baseline measurement backing the
+  B2 reversal rather than an inferred one.
+
+**Status:** RUN complete; awaiting a PR to land these results (background
+job completed after #937 merged as pure hygiene). Zero product code —
+probe results + board.
+
 ## 2026-08-12 — lance-graph #936 (MERGED) — W5 v1 RUN: B2 PASS / B3 VOID / B4 smooth, and codex found all three verdicts were built on sand (v2 fix in flight, not yet landed)
 
 - **Added.** `spiral_adi_probe.json` — v1's headline (N=3·F(17)²=7 651 227)

.claude/board/STATUS_BOARD.md

@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ Wave 1 = parallel, no operator gate beyond go-ahead; gated rows named.
 
 | D-id | Deliverable | Wave | Status | Feeds |
 |---|---|---|---|---|
-| D-W5 | Spiral-ADI anisotropy (v2 spec: full-band control, V-matched iterations, bump 3.35σ from mask) | 1 | **v1 RUN ⊘ SUPERSEDED (4 codex defects on #936: subsampled B3 control, inert-operator-indistinguishable B2 fit, mask-truncation-explains-the-"asymptote", uncommitted verification artifact) — v2 RUN IN FLIGHT, results in a follow-up PR** | domino.rs gather design claim now PENDING v2 (not unblocked — v1's B2 PASS never demonstrated diffusion occurred); mechanism-level epiphany survives on its unaffected sub-cap measurement |
+| D-W5 | Spiral-ADI anisotropy (v2, full-band control, V-matched iterations, bump 3.35σ from mask) | 1 | **v2 RUN COMPLETE — B2 FAIL (real diffusion now resolved: aniso 1.5251 vs 1.25 bar, baseline through the clean mask = 1.0046, operator contributes ~0.52 anisotropy); B3 VOID CONFIRMED at full headline scale (99.68 % of 4.78M qualifying links land on a pure Fibonacci offset — stronger than the earlier 62k-point check, not weaker)** | domino.rs gather-design claim REFUTED at this test point (v1's "unblocked" was the same inert-operator artifact that also drove B2's false PASS); `E-ON-A-GOLDEN-LATTICE-LOCALITY-IS-FIBONACCI-MEMBERSHIP-1` strengthened, third dated update |
 | D-W2sA | Golden-vs-grid pairing on real cos-lat metric (zero-ties G1, CV G2) | 1 | **RUN — G1 VOID, G2/G4 FAIL (control degenerate: two identical translated grids are symmetry-uniform, CV ~1e-12 — cannot lose any evenness comparison; diagnosed via smoke test, run as-specified, `E-A-CONTROL-THAT-CANNOT-LOSE-IS-NO-CONTROL-1`)** | honest falsifier for evenness DEFERRED (offset/rotation-varied or spacing-mismatched control); §10.5 properties 1–3 untouched |
 | D-W6 | Two-component deconvolution (geo + bow, global lstsq, 38 eqs / 2 params; B3 = stranded stratification via v_rel) | 1 | Queued | dipole vector-sum identification; F17 gate |
 | D-W2sB | α-window sweep β∈[0.85,1.15] | gated (W2s-a) | Queued | corridor α discriminator |