plan: dismech-causal-replay-v1 — causality replay over the DisMech palette #1117
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| # dismech-causal-replay-v1 — causality replay over the DisMech palette | ||
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| > **Status: PROPOSED — PLAN/BOARD ONLY.** No production implementation in | ||
| > this PR. Sibling and FIRST DOMAIN INSTANTIATION of | ||
| > `rubicon-loco-rung-cognitive-fabric-v1` (2026-08-29): that plan verified | ||
| > the fabric (loco carrier, callable atoms, masks, counterfactual, | ||
| > `temporal.rs` replay); this plan binds ONE domain to it — recorded | ||
| > disease-mechanism causal chains under the `ogar-dismech` predicate | ||
| > palette. **Every `F-RLR-*` STOP gate is inherited unchanged**; nothing | ||
| > here re-litigates a fabric verdict. | ||
| > | ||
| > **Operator direction (2026-08-31, verbatim anchors):** the mechanics are | ||
| > *"causality replay shaped"* (the keystone); candidates evaluate by | ||
| > *"Mengenlehre"*; *"Shannon proprioception + EWA Sandwich"* carry | ||
| > uncertainty; *"rung 0-9 inference frontier scheduling"*; | ||
| > *"ogar-loco Orchestration as config / ogar-r2il thinking as config"*; | ||
| > *"lance-graph p64 stockfish-rs ALU 64x64 4096 shape later, | ||
| > cognitive-shader-driver as ALU crunching"*. | ||
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| ## §0 State audit — what EXISTS (verified 2026-08-31, sibling repos checked per F-RLR-11) | ||
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| | thing | state | where | | ||
| |---|---|---| | ||
| | causal predicate palette | **MINTED, loco-addressable** — 19 predicates (`causes`..`variant_of`), `FnIndex` `0x90..=0xA2`, concept `0x0333` | OGAR `ogar-dismech` (mirrors `ogar-ro`'s `RelationVocabulary` pattern) | | ||
| | mechanism modules | **ADDRESSED** — 124 cross-disease templates, 585 nodes, `conforms_to` address inheritance, append-only registry at `0x0333` | consumer-side transcode (`module_registry`) | | ||
| | corpus transcode + replay gate | **SHIPPED** — resolver reproduces the upstream builder field-for-field; parity diffs against the 1,870 pathographs the upstream resolver produced (replay-equivalence IS its gate) | consumer-side transcode (per OGAR's own doc: the public `dismech-rs` posture — zero OGAR dep, like `ogar-obo`) | | ||
| | baked slab | **NONE EXISTS.** The bake bin emits loose TSVs to a local dir; no release tag, no pin-table row anywhere | — (consumer leg, §4 W-C) | | ||
| | `lance-graph-ontology` cache | **UNRELATED** — OGIT-TTL tenant naming registry; zero dismech references | this repo | | ||
| | set algebra (∩ ∖ ⊆) | **EXISTS + CALLABLE** — `contract::revision::EvidenceMask` (#1075) | this repo | | ||
| | counterfactual / intervention | **EXISTS** — `contract::counterfactual`; R2IL V4 probe rows | this repo | | ||
| | replay substrate | **EXISTS** — `planner/src/temporal.rs` (version-range reads, per-reader rung, replayable) | this repo | | ||
| | EWA covariance | **EXISTS, not loco-addressable** — `jc::ewa_sandwich` (Pillar 9/9b certify `J·W·Σ·Wᵀ·Jᵀ` push-forward) | this repo | | ||
| | Shannon entropy | **EXISTS, SCATTERED** — ≥6 uncoordinated `entropy()` surfaces (rubicon §C) | this repo | | ||
| | loco call pattern to copy | `lance-graph-ogar/src/recipe_vocab.rs` — `op_of` / `recipe_of` / `ladder_program` | this repo | | ||
| | chain-step eval kernel | `CausalEdge64` + `NarsTables` ("precomputed NARS as lookup tables") | causal-edge / planner cache | | ||
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| **The gap is exactly one thing: nothing REPLAYS a recorded causal chain | ||
| against an evidence set.** Every ingredient exists; the composition does not. | ||
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| ## §1 The object | ||
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| **Replay, never generate.** The domain knowledge is trajectory-shaped | ||
| (curated mechanism chains); differential evaluation is *which recorded | ||
| trajectories are consistent with this evidence*, i.e.: | ||
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| ```text | ||
| candidates = { recorded chains } (sets of chain ids) | ||
| evidence arrives → EvidenceMask ∩ on support, | ||
| ∖ on refute (the skip-word semantics as ordinals) | ||
| frontier pick → expected entropy reduction over candidates (§W4) | ||
| each expansion → REPLAY the chain: loco calls under the dismech | ||
| vocabulary, one CausalEdge64 + NarsTruth revision per | ||
| step, trace on temporal.rs | ||
| counterfactual → the SAME replay with one edge cut (Pearl rung 3) | ||
| grade → replay equivalence: same inputs ⟹ byte-identical trace | ||
| ``` | ||
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| The trace of an evaluation is itself a loco program — thinking as config | ||
| makes causality replay **self-hosting**: yesterday's evaluation replays | ||
| today byte-for-byte, and template-equivalence machinery grades it. | ||
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| ## §2 Design constraints (inherited + house) | ||
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| 1. **No new carrier** (`F-RLR-2`, automatic STOP): steps are loco | ||
| `(FnIndex, value)` calls under the already-minted dismech vocabulary; | ||
| traces ride `temporal.rs`; per-step state is `CausalEdge64` + | ||
| `NarsTruth`. A `ReplayFrame` struct that owns what a lane already holds | ||
| is the zero-copy-warden's MATERIALIZES verdict — methods on carriers, | ||
| never a new layer. | ||
| 2. **No second set algebra:** Mengenlehre = `EvidenceMask` ops. If a | ||
| needed op (symmetric difference, popcount-weighted split) is missing, | ||
| it is added THERE, with the field-isolation discipline. | ||
| 3. **No 7th entropy.** W4 opens with a consolidation DECISION — which of | ||
| the ≥6 existing `entropy()` surfaces is canonical for the candidate | ||
| readout — recorded on the board before any call site is written. | ||
| 4. **Constitutional (rubicon, carried verbatim):** ambiguity/entropy/ | ||
| parallax never terminate cognition — only the Rubicon boundary owns | ||
| stop/commit/veto. **Shannon reduction ≠ evidential increase**; the | ||
| frontier picks WHERE to look next, never WHAT is true. Prefetch ≠ | ||
| belief. | ||
| 5. **Fixtures in this repo are SYNTHETIC.** The real corpus and its bake | ||
| live consumer-side (§4 W-C pointer); this repo's gates run on | ||
| generated chains whose ground truth is constructed, exactly the | ||
| `dismech_parity` discipline at engine scale. | ||
| 6. **Predicate ordinals, not strings**, on every hot path; the palette | ||
| binds at the membrane (`op_of`-shaped). A `typed → stringify → parse` | ||
| step anywhere inside is `F-RLR-7`'s STOP. | ||
| 7. **Rung semantics:** `r` = the `RungLevel` discriminant 0..=9 (rubicon | ||
| §I pin). Horizon reads via `EpistemicMode::for_rung`; nothing here | ||
| privileges a rung. | ||
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| ## §3 Waves | ||
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| ### W0 — the two NNUE numbers + palette round-trip (measure, no code) — `D-DCR-0` | ||
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| Stockfish-depth claims are arithmetic over two measured quantities this | ||
| workspace has never measured for THIS composition: | ||
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| - **evals/ms**: one chain step = `NarsTables` lookup + `CausalEdge64` | ||
| revision, benched over synthetic chains (existing kernels, bench only). | ||
| - **effective branching**: candidate-set shrink per evidence item under | ||
| `EvidenceMask` ops on generated corpora of 10³/10⁴/10⁵ chains. | ||
| - **palette round-trip**: dismech `FnIndex` `0x90..=0xA2` compose/ | ||
| decompose through `ogar_loco` (cite the OGAR-side tests; add none here | ||
| unless a gap is measured). | ||
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| **Gate (two-sided):** numbers recorded with the harness committed; | ||
| the deferred ALU wave (§5) states its BUY threshold in terms of them. | ||
| KILL: if a single full scan of 10⁵ chains costs less than one frontier | ||
| decision, the scheduler is decoration at that scale — record it and | ||
| descope W5 accordingly. | ||
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| ### W1 — replay core — `D-DCR-1` | ||
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| Replay ONE synthetic chain end-to-end: loco calls under the dismech | ||
| vocabulary → per-step `CausalEdge64` + `NarsTruth` revision → trace on | ||
| `temporal.rs` → typed receipt on the #879 sealed-cycle path. | ||
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| **Gates:** (a) determinism — two replays of identical inputs produce | ||
| byte-identical traces; (b) can-fire — a one-edge perturbation of the | ||
| chain produces a trace that DIFFERS at exactly the perturbed step index; | ||
| (c) silence — a perturbation of a non-replayed sibling chain changes | ||
| nothing. Disable-verified per the falsifiability rule. | ||
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| ### W2 — Mengenlehre candidate evaluation — `D-DCR-2` | ||
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| Candidate sets as masks; support evidence intersects, refuting evidence | ||
| subtracts (the skip-word semantics — `biomarker/disputed/modifier/ | ||
| protective/refuted/unknown` — as refute-class ordinals, never strings). | ||
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| **Gates:** anti-vacuity (`kept * 3 < total` on the synthetic corpus); | ||
| two-sided discrimination (a discriminating evidence item must split the | ||
| set; a redundant one must NOT shrink it further); the refute path has | ||
| its own can-fire + stay-silent pair. | ||
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| ### W3 — counterfactual replay (Pearl rung 3) — `D-DCR-3` | ||
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| The SAME W1 replay with one edge cut, through `contract::counterfactual` | ||
| — never a second replay path. | ||
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When D-DCR-3 is implemented, Useful? React with 👍 / 👎.
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There was a problem hiding this comment. 🎯 Functional Correctness | 🟠 Major | 🏗️ Heavy lift 🔎 Supported by static analysis🏁 Script executed: #!/bin/bash
set -euo pipefail
rg -n -C 10 'pub fn counterfactual|set_p_idx|alternative_p|edge cut|cut.*edge' crates --glob '*.rs'
rg -n -C 8 'contract::counterfactual|counterfactual\(' crates --glob '*.rs'Repository: AdaWorldAPI/lance-graph Length of output: 50381 🏁 Script executed: #!/bin/bash
set -euo pipefail
printf '%s\n' '--- plan W3 context ---'
sed -n '120,150p' .claude/plans/dismech-causal-replay-v1.md
printf '%s\n' '--- causal-edge exports and counterfactual binding ---'
rg -n -C 6 'pub mod contract|mod contract|pub use|counterfactual|pub struct CausalNetwork|impl CausalNetwork' crates/causal-edge/src crates/causal-edge/Cargo.toml
printf '%s\n' '--- repository conventions and learnings for the plan scope ---'
find /tmp/coderabbit-repo-knowledge/adaworldapi-lance-graph-8c8fd2e8 -maxdepth 2 -type f -name '*.md' -printRepository: AdaWorldAPI/lance-graph Length of output: 21635 🏁 Script executed: #!/bin/bash
set -euo pipefail
printf '%s\n' '--- exact contract counterfactual references ---'
rg -n -C 5 'contract::counterfactual|counterfactual' crates/lance-graph-contract crates/lance-graph crates --glob '*.rs' --glob '!**/target/**' | head -250
printf '%s\n' '--- contract crate layout and exports ---'
find crates -maxdepth 3 -type f \( -path '*contract*' -o -name 'lib.rs' \) -print | sort | head -150
if [ -f /tmp/coderabbit-repo-knowledge/adaworldapi-lance-graph-8c8fd2e8/learnings/crates-lance-graph-contract-src.md ]; then
cat /tmp/coderabbit-repo-knowledge/adaworldapi-lance-graph-8c8fd2e8/learnings/crates-lance-graph-contract-src.md
fi
printf '%s\n' '--- W1 replay definitions in the plan ---'
sed -n '1,125p' .claude/plans/dismech-causal-replay-v1.mdRepository: AdaWorldAPI/lance-graph Length of output: 43603 🏁 Script executed: #!/bin/bash
set -euo pipefail
printf '%s\n' '--- contract module export ---'
rg -n -C 4 'counterfactual' crates/lance-graph-contract/src/lib.rs crates/lance-graph-contract/src/counterfactual.rs
printf '%s\n' '--- contract counterfactual implementation ---'
sed -n '1,280p' crates/lance-graph-contract/src/counterfactual.rs
printf '%s\n' '--- contract network module references ---'
rg -n -C 8 'CausalNetwork|causal-edge|forward_chain|counterfactual' crates/lance-graph-contract/src crates/lance-graph-contract/Cargo.tomlRepository: AdaWorldAPI/lance-graph Length of output: 50382 🏁 Script executed: #!/bin/bash
set -euo pipefail
printf '%s\n' '--- counterfactual public functions and edge-cut terms ---'
rg -n '^(pub )?(fn|trait|struct|enum)|edge|chain|remove|cut|drop|replay' crates/lance-graph-contract/src/counterfactual.rs
printf '%s\n' '--- causal network counterfactual and chain operations ---'
sed -n '56,90p' crates/causal-edge/src/network.rs
sed -n '167,214p' crates/causal-edge/src/network.rs
printf '%s\n' '--- dependency boundary ---'
sed -n '1,80p' crates/lance-graph-contract/Cargo.toml
sed -n '1,45p' crates/causal-edge/Cargo.tomlRepository: AdaWorldAPI/lance-graph Length of output: 11783 Define W3’s edge-cut semantics at the replay layer.
🤖 Prompt for AI Agents |
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| **Gates (two-sided):** cutting a load-bearing edge flips the chain's | ||
| consistency verdict; cutting a redundant (parallel-path) edge does not. | ||
| Both fixture halves constructed so the property is reachable — the | ||
| fixture's SHAPE is part of the coverage. | ||
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| ### W4 — Σ transport + the Shannon readout — `D-DCR-4` | ||
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| Per-edge evidence counts → `NarsTruth` (`w/(w+1)`) → a small Σ; pushed | ||
| along the replayed path via `jc::ewa_sandwich`'s certified form (Pillar | ||
| 9/9b are the standing gates — the mint rule from the math-atoms | ||
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When W4 is moved into production code, it cannot call the named Useful? React with 👍 / 👎. |
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| discussion applies: no loco address for the atom while its pillar is | ||
| red). Candidate-set entropy = the proprioception readout; value of the | ||
| next observation = expected entropy drop. | ||
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| **Gates:** Σ growth monotone under fan-in; a discriminating observation | ||
| must score strictly above a redundant one (two-sided); the entropy | ||
| CONSOLIDATION decision (constraint 3) recorded before the first call. | ||
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| ### W5 — frontier scheduling — `D-DCR-5` — **HELD** | ||
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| Priority = expected-information-gain / rung-cost, horizons via | ||
| `EpistemicMode::for_rung`. **HELD behind the operator rung 5–9 table | ||
| ruling** (persona-vs-rung-ladder O-items) AND W0's KILL check. Interface | ||
| note only; the scheduler never decides truth, causality, band promotion | ||
| or revision acceptance (§K carried). | ||
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| ### W-C — consumer leg (pointer, not this repo's work) | ||
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| The corpus bake (TSVs → a tagged, gated artifact) and the live-evidence | ||
| binding happen consumer-side under that repo's own pin doctrine. This | ||
| plan's engine consumes classid-addressed rows and synthetic fixtures | ||
| only. §0's "NONE EXISTS" row is the reason this pointer exists. | ||
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| ### Deferred — p64 64×64 ALU + shader-driver dispatch | ||
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| 64×64 = 4096 = one node's bit budget: the ALU tile is exactly one node. | ||
| NNUE's real trick is the incrementally-updated accumulator over a delta | ||
| — evidence landing IS the delta. **BUY only on W0's numbers**; until | ||
| then this row exists so nobody builds it early. Dispatch belongs to | ||
| `cognitive-shader-driver` (the loop that can't-not-think while F is | ||
| above floor) — never a bespoke driver. | ||
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| ## §4 What this plan deliberately does NOT do | ||
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| No new carrier, mask type, entropy surface, replay substrate, or | ||
| scheduler-that-decides-truth. No renames. No consumer corpus data in | ||
| this repo. No R2IL transcode of anything (`ogar-r2il`'s own ruling: | ||
| executed, never pre-converted). No second Rubicon. | ||
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| ## §5 Model allocation | ||
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| Opus: this plan, wave specs, review, W4's consolidation decision. | ||
| Sonnet: W0 harness, W1–W3 implementation against written specs, one | ||
| source in / one shape out. Haiku: only the guarded-executor card. | ||
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| ## §6 D-id table | ||
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| | id | wave | status | | ||
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| | D-DCR-0 | W0 measurements | Queued | | ||
| | D-DCR-1 | replay core | Queued (after D-DCR-0) | | ||
| | D-DCR-2 | Mengenlehre evaluation | Queued | | ||
| | D-DCR-3 | counterfactual replay | Queued | | ||
| | D-DCR-4 | Σ transport + Shannon readout | Queued (entropy decision first) | | ||
| | D-DCR-5 | frontier scheduling | **HELD** (operator rung table + W0 KILL) | | ||
| | D-DCR-6 | consumer-leg pointer honoured (no corpus data lands here) | standing gate | | ||
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🗄️ Data Integrity & Integration | 🟠 Major | 🏗️ Heavy lift
🔎 Supported by static analysis
🏁 Script executed:
Repository: AdaWorldAPI/lance-graph
Length of output: 50380
🏁 Script executed:
Repository: AdaWorldAPI/lance-graph
Length of output: 24140
🏁 Script executed:
Repository: AdaWorldAPI/lance-graph
Length of output: 50382
🏁 Script executed:
Repository: AdaWorldAPI/lance-graph
Length of output: 50379
Define a stable evidence-to-
Stampmapping before implementing W1.W1 requires byte-identical traces but does not define evidence IDs,
Stampconstruction, replay reset, or ordering.BeliefArena::revise_atusesStamp::disjointto choose revision orCHOICE, whileStamp::sourcefolds IDs modulo 64. Different replay-local IDs can change branches, and reused bits can classify distinct evidence as overlapping. Define stable IDs and replay isolation, then test repeated replay with the same evidence set.🤖 Prompt for AI Agents